Year: 2020

Based on yesterday’s numbers, the UK would see between 140 and 390 new cases on March 17th. Having such a wide margin of error is precisely the main hint there’s something very off. The infection rate now floats between 7% and 42%, which prevents any meaningful forecast. On the other hand, the number of recoveries is inline with expectations, where another 33 patients are expected now to have fully recovered. As usual the source spreadsheet is available here.

The forecast of March 16th, is for 296 new infections, 11 patients recovered and zero fatalities. However, as the last few days have demonstrated the number of fatalities has been far higher than expected, corresponding to a fatalities per infection ratio of 2.5%, far exceeding the expectation of 0.7% for industrialised countries. As usual the source spreadsheet is available here.