Without knowing where you are, you can’t even start to know where you’re heading to.
The last few days’ figures show a very sorry picture of the UK. Yes, the infection grow rate if one of the lowest on Europe, but if you compare that with the number of fatalities, it paints a very clear picture.
Infection fatality rate (IFR) now stands at around 5.22%. Why the “around at”, because it’s 11PM and there are no updated figures on the fatalities over the last 24 hours. This can’t be true. It’s not like you need to find people with symptoms to be able to test, or they may simply being staying at home with symptoms. You just’t cannot hide the fact someone died from a disease it was already known to have.
On the infection figures, it’s just laughable: infection rate of 10.26% just after a day mandatory stay at home order was issues, an order compliance level is lacking to say the least, doesn’t deserve any kind of credit.
Having a 5.22% IFR means that you’re at least underestimating the number of infections by a factor of 4. So, not only you don’t how where you’re heading, you don’t know there you are, not at which speed are you moving. Wonderfull world this is.
This effectively means there’s no way you can feed any epidemic progression model. There no reliable input parameters. The best you can get forecasted for March 26th, based on past data rolling average, which gives:
- Cumulative infections – 11346
- Cumulative fatalities – 565
As usual the source spreadsheet is available here.