Why is Europe improving on the battle against COVID-19, but the US is just getting worse at it?

On July 24th, the US took a turn for the worse. From that week on, the US has getting worst and worst, almost doubling the fatality rate Let me just share a question that started to bug me a few weeks ago: “Doesn’t it seem strange that the US is reporting average daily COVID-19 deaths in the high hundreds while infection figures keep dropping?” This is a fairly long question, but sums some discussions I’ve been reading around, unfortunately commonly tainted by politics. First, let’s look at what the context. Over the past two months, the US has reported ever lower figures of new infections, and this effect was especially visible on the last couple of weeks, as we can check on the chart above. What is most striking is that on Europe, things are heating up, with new cases popping up literally on every single country, and at very significant rates. On some European countries, like Spain or France, the figure are fast approaching the dreadful scenario from the months of April and May, with infections beating 10 thousand infections per day, and deaths exceeding a hundred in some days. For other countries, like Czechia or Denmark, the number …

Calculating the real number of infections from Covid-19 on some European Countries on June 1st.

Obtaining the Infection Fatality Rate On the past two weeks two most important studies were made public. One from the Public Health Agency of Sweden1 reporting the calculated real infection fatality rate of Covid-19 in Stockholm, and another from the MIT2 . Both having the same goal: estimating the real infection fatality rate (IFR). This corresponds to the odds of dying from the disease, including those who have mild or no symptoms. How does this differ from the values reported by official figures? Official figures only include the number of people having been tested positive. And people without symptoms, nor with a known contact with another person having tested positive, don’t often get tested, unless it gets into a random population study. With this in mind, the ratio you get with the current figures is known as Case Fatality Rate (CFR), which corresponds to the number of fatalities based on the number of known infections. Knowing the number of how many people went undetected is what allows you to calculate the most import indicator of a pandemic disease: the actual fatality rate. Countries with the lowest CFR puts it at around 3.9%, such as Czechia, where others, such as Italy or Belgium exceeds 10%. …

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