Tag: Spain

Calculating the real number of infections from Covid-19 on some European Countries on June 1st.

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Obtaining the Infection Fatality Rate On the past two weeks two most important studies were made public. One from the Public Health Agency of Sweden1 reporting the calculated real infection fatality rate of Covid-19 in Stockholm, and another from the MIT2 . Both having the same goal: estimating the real infection fatality rate (IFR). This corresponds to the odds of dying from the disease, including those who have mild or no symptoms. How does this differ from the values reported by official figures? Official figures only include the number of people having been tested positive. And people without symptoms, nor with a known contact with another person having tested positive, don’t often get tested, unless it gets into a random population study. With this in mind, the ratio you get with the current figures is known as Case Fatality Rate (CFR), which corresponds to the number of fatalities based on the number of known infections. Knowing the number of how many people went undetected is what allows you to calculate the most import indicator of a pandemic disease: the actual fatality rate. Countries with the lowest CFR puts it at around 3.9%, such as Czechia, where others, such as Italy or Belgium exceeds 10%. …

UK takes second spot of the world’s most unwelcome podium: Covid-19 fatalities per capita. Excluding ONS excessive deaths.

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Remember the day the UK overtook Italy to became the world’s third most affected country by Covid-19 ? It if feels it was just a week or so ago, your internal clock is correct, as it was on May 24th. On June 1st, the UK started to ease the lockdown measures, the same day that 111 people were announced as victims of Covid-19, along with 1590 newly infected. In fact, since May 12th, it has consistently been on the top 2 of the European countries with most daily fatalities per capita, and since May 19th disputes the spot with Sweden, although Sweden has taken the top spot every single day since May 25th. Nevertheless, when comparing the UK’s daily fatality rate with the other most affected countries, namely Spain, the UK shows a huge “advantage”. As such, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the UK would climb another step, overtaking Spain, to become the world’s second most affected country by Covid-19, as measured by fatalities per capita, behind Belgium. Today, the UK reached 58.03 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants versus Spain’s 58.02. Yet, UK’s fatality rate still significantly exceeds that of Belgium. If we consider that Belgium excessive deaths can totally be …

UK overtakes Italy to become the 3rd country in the world with most deaths per capita

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Remember these images ? These images were broadcasted on March 21st. The day Italy reported the most infections in a single day ever, anywhere in the whole world. Never would the UK expect ever to be compared with it. Until it was. And then, it got worst than Italy. Today will be shamelessly known as the the day the UK become the third country1 with most fatalities per capita in the whole world, now behind Spain and the currently undisputed leader, Belgium. Accordingly to the official data released by the UK’s Department of Health and Social Care, and Italy’s Ministero della Salute, UK’s fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants now total 54.23 which compares to Italy’s 54.22. Although this data is official, doubts have been casted on all, but on all countries. Both Italy and Spain suspect some deaths were not caught, but then then, fatalities in those countries are reports in near real time. In the UK fatalities can take up to 2 weeks to be reported. For fatalities occurring outside hospitals, it can take up to 2 months for it to appear on the ONS statistics. However, the bad news to the UK don’t end here. The other bad news is that pesky green …

Belgium is now the world’s most affected country by Covid-19 (except for Andorra and San Marino)

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Something is very wrong in Belgium. It’s known that Belgium reacted a bit slow to the Covid-19 pandemic, and only entered lock down on March 18th, after 18 people had already died and the number of infected exceeded 1000 people. Nevertheless, 29 days have passed, and things seemed not to have worked, as the following chart depicts: After the initial lockdown, everything seemed to work inline with other countries such as France, UK or the Netherlands. Not that those countries fared extremely well, but were not at the levels of Italy or Spain. Then, around April 9th ( or around March 21st, the date 20 days earlier) something went very wrong. The number of fatalities started to skyrocket. And has continued ever since. From 15 fatalities per 100 000 to 42 fatalities, exceeding those of Italy or Spain, and becoming the world’s most affected country by Covid-19, and the curve is nowhere near becoming flat. This demonstrates that announcing a lockdown is different that enforcing a lockdown. Let’s compare Google’s data from Belgium with other (now) less affected countries, such as Spain. Spain Belgium So, Spain’s lockdown was more strictly implemented than Belgium’s, and not that the figures from Spain are anything …

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