Tag: Sweden

Calculating the real number of infections from Covid-19 on some European Countries on June 1st.

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Obtaining the Infection Fatality Rate On the past two weeks two most important studies were made public. One from the Public Health Agency of Sweden1 reporting the calculated real infection fatality rate of Covid-19 in Stockholm, and another from the MIT2 . Both having the same goal: estimating the real infection fatality rate (IFR). This corresponds to the odds of dying from the disease, including those who have mild or no symptoms. How does this differ from the values reported by official figures? Official figures only include the number of people having been tested positive. And people without symptoms, nor with a known contact with another person having tested positive, don’t often get tested, unless it gets into a random population study. With this in mind, the ratio you get with the current figures is known as Case Fatality Rate (CFR), which corresponds to the number of fatalities based on the number of known infections. Knowing the number of how many people went undetected is what allows you to calculate the most import indicator of a pandemic disease: the actual fatality rate. Countries with the lowest CFR puts it at around 3.9%, such as Czechia, where others, such as Italy or Belgium exceeds 10%. …

Sweden jumps into top 5 of the countries most effected by Covid-19

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Things appear not to go smoothly on Sweden’s light contention strategy, as since May 13th it battles with the UK for the Europe’s most daily fatalities per capita, claiming top spot for more than a week. Now, Sweden is still a long way from reaching the heights of Spain or Belgium, but with such a high number of daily fatalities it was bound to jump the rankings of the world’s most affected countries by Covid-19. Which was the case today. Until today, Sweden occupied the sixth spot, right after France. Until today. Today Sweden overcook France, to become the world’s fifth most affected country in the work by Covid-19. However, things don’t end here. Sweden is still suffering more daily fatalities per capita than most of the other countries, specially those on the top5, which means sooner or latter it’s bound to overtake Italy. Remember Italy? The first country to be taken down hard by Covid-19 ? At the time no one would have guessed Sweden would even be compared to Italy, but at the current rate, it will happen in a matter of weeks. So, it was already clear that something it not going ok on Sweden’s strategy. But now the scale …

Sweden’s approach to Covid19 is important for you, even if you don’t agree with it, or even if it isn’t working

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Have you ever felt like an ant, when all other ants are going the other way? This is how the swedes are are now feeling. Not that the game has ended, as it’s barely past the 15 minute mark, but the current result is all but brilliant to Sweden. There are only three possible approaches to the Covid-19 pandemic: Confinement and contention until a vaccine is available. This is the approach taken by most European and western countries plus all Asian developed and not so developed far eastern countries. Mild contention targeting a fast path to herd immunity. The path followed by Sweden. Zigzaging, incoherent and sometimes contradictory policy, as taken my countries with populist governments and or agendas, where we can fit countries like Brazil and the US. Well, to be fair, we only have two possible approaches. Not having an approach cannot be considered one🙃. Let’s have a deeper analysis on the Swedish mild contention approach: Schools and universities remained open Small shops and most commerce continued to do business as usual. Bars and coffees saw little new sanitary recommendations. Nursing homes and other locations with high number of highly vulnerable people were isolated from the general population, but healthcare …

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